Monday, February 10, 2020

Coronavirus-н нөлөөлөл Монголд

Коронавирус нь Хятадын Ухань хотод анх хүнд халдварлагдсан тохиолдол бүртгэгдсэн ба хүн болон амьтанд өвчин үүсгэдэг RNA вирусын нэг төрөл юм. Энэхүү вирусыг анх сарьсан багваахайнаас хүнд халдварласан гэж үзэж байгаа. /Сарьсан багваахайнд 4 төрлийн уушигны хатгалгаа үүсгэгч нян вирус байдаг гэж үздэг. Сарьсан багваахай энэхүү вирусыг ашиглан хоол тэжээлээ олж иддэг байна. Хятадын Ухань хот нь Бээжин, Шанхай хотын араас орох Хятадын шинжлэх ухаан, боловсролын гурван төв хотын нэг юм./

2019.12.30 - 2020.02.10-ны өдрийн байдлаар /WHO report: Mainland China 40 235 confirmed (3073 new),  6484 severe (296 new),  909 deaths (97 new)/  тохиолдол бүртгэгдсэн байна.

Вирусын төрөл Огноо Өвчлөл Нас баралт Death Rate
Coronavirus  2019.12-2020.02.10 40,235 909 2%*
SARS 2002.11 - 2003.07 8,096 774 9.60%
MERS 2012.06 - 2017.08 2,499 861 34%

Дээрх хүснэгтээс харахад коронавирус нь 40 орчим хоногийн дотор өвчилсөн хүний тоо, нас барсан хүний тоо нь SARS болон MERS -н үед бүртгэгдсэн хүний тооноос их буюу богино хугацаанд маш хурдацтай тархаж байна. Энэхүү вирусын нууц үе нь 2-14 хоног байгаа нь тархалт өндөр байх эрсдэлийг дагуулж байна.

АНУ болон бусад улс орнууд Хятад улсаар дамжин ирж буй зоригч нарыг хилээрэй нэвтрүүлэхгүй байгаа ба дараах үйл явдалууд тохиолдож байна.

Олон улсад:
  • 2020.01.30 Коронавирусийн гамшигтай холбоотойгоор ДЭМБ олон улсын хэмжээнд онц байдал зарлав. /WHO.int/
  • 2020.01.20-22 хооронд зохион байгуулагдсан Servomex ХХК-ний борлуулагч нарт зориулсан сургалтанд оролцогчоос Коронавирус илэрсэн байна.  Хуралд 94 төлөөлөгчид оролцсон байна. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/super-spreader-brought-coronavirus-from-singapore-to-sussex-via-france
  • 2020.02.01 Ухань хотод ажиллаж амьдарч байсан 31 оюутныг МУ-д авчиран тусгаарлан тандалт судалгаа хийж байна.
  • 2020.02.02 БНХАУ-н Эрээн хотод хөл хорио тогтоож нэгдүгээр зэргийн онц байдал зарлав. /dnn.mn өдрийн сонин/
  • 2020.02.03 Орос, Хятадын зорчигч тээврийн төмөр замын хөдөлгөөнийг бүрэн зогсоолоо. 
  • 2020.02.03 Коронавирусийн халдвар дэгдэх үед БНХАУ-ын Засгийн газар Ухань хотод 10 хоногийн дотор 1000 ортой шинэ эмнэлэг ашиглалтанд орлоо.
  • 2020.02.03 Японы Канагава мужийн Ёкохама хотын ойролцоо хөл хорионд орсон  “Diamond Princess” аяллын хөлөг онгоц /56 улсын 2700 зорчигч, 1000 ажилтан/ нь Ёкохама хотоос 1.3-2.3-нд буцаж ирэхдээ нэгдүгээр сарын 25-нд Хонконгоор дайрсан ба 2020.02.10-ны байдлаар халдвар авсан хүний тоо 130-д хүрсэн байна.
  • 2020.02.11 ДЭМБ коронавирусыг Covid-19 гэж нэрлэв. “Вирус нь ямар ч террорист халдлагаас илүү улс төр, нийгэм эдийн засагт хохирол учруулах хүчтэй зүйл. Энэ бол хүмүүсийн төсөөлж чадах хамгийн аюултай дайсан юм”  Covid-19 нэр нь “corona”, “virus”, “disease” гэсэн үгнүүд болон халдвар анх илэрсэн 2019 оныг оролцуулсан үг юм байна.
Ухань хот руу бусад хотуудаас эмч нар гэр бүлийнхэнтэйгээ салах ёс хийн очиж ажиллаж байна. Мөн эмэгтэй эмч нарын хувьд үсийг нь тайрч байна /хүний үс хумсаар нян вирус ихээр дамждаг/.  Ухань хотод хөл хорио тогтоож хотын гудамж талбай хөл хөдөлгөөнгүй яг орхигдсон хот шиг байна.

In Mongolia,
2020.01.27 All schools, kinder garden, and universities temporarily closed.
2020.01.28 Ministry of Health Mongolia informed that Mongolia received a new detection device of corona virus from National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan. / Firstly, provided 200 detection devices from Japan and in the further, has been negotiating in China to receive it/
2020.01.27 Khentii aimag’s joint hospital outlined foot binding.
2020.01.29 All results observed negative even though 13 people were suspected to have virus during 9-27 Jan, 2020. /http://dardas.mn/news/view/13904/
2020.02.04 According to the permission of State Emergency Commission, 367 Mongolian citizens delivered into Zamiin Uud “gateway to the road” from Erenhot. /https://news.mn/r/2258267/
2020.02.10 The State Emergency Commission decided that Gashuun sukhait and other borders did not transport any coals until March 2. /http://isee.mn/n/6711/
2020.02.11 The State Emergency Commission declared that do not to celebrate the Tsagaan Sar – Mongolian Lunar New Year extensively.
2020.02.11 One suspected case /a person works as a driver in Gashuun sukhait border/ was observed in Khuvsgul and all retails closed and cleaned the objects then will sterilize.
2020.02.12 Mongolian National Broadcaster announced that since this day, all programs could not show any kind of promotion contents related to Mongolian Lunar New Year.
2020.02.13 In according to the government decision, starting from Feb 13, 20, administrative and territorial units of Mongolia and their governance are partially shifted to "Emergency preparedness and response for corona virus disease".
2020.02.14 Mongolia had closed a border crossing with China what entrance and exit was prohibited.     

Coronavirus can live up to 9 days and spread via any wets from a human body such as urine, sweat and feces so on. /http://gogo.mn/r/y6202/



Monday, October 16, 2017

Mongolian economic temporary light of 2017

Mongolian economics 2017
At the early of 2017, Mongolian and some external economists supposed that Mongolia will be declared its default because of facing three urgent finance issues /please see Mongolian GDP growth 2017 projection from table 1/ even though Mongolian budget implementation of 2016 was over its projection /table 2/. And, foreign investors investment had dramatically dropped since 2013 /table 3/.
First reason of announcing of Mongolian default was that U.S. $ 580.0 million of “Euro” bond of being issued from Development bank of Mongolia is ending up its agreement term on March 21, 2017 and it has five years and its annual return was 5.75 percentages. However, Mongolian government, Ministry of Finance Mongolia, issued totally new bond “Khuraldai” with U.S. $ 600.0 million of seven years and 8.75 percentage for U.S. $ 475.9 million which was replaced for 82.5 percentages of “Euro” bond owners and 7.625 percentages for the remaining of U.S. $ 124 million of “Khuraldai” bond was cashed out then paid for “Euro” bond rest shareholders of U.S. $ 104.1 million /17.5 percentages of “Euro” bond/[1].
Second financial risk was what “Swapping agreement from MNT to RMB” entered between Mongolia’s central bank and the Bank of China also ended on July of 2017. This agreement with RMB 5.0 billion and three years initially signed in 2011 and its amount was doubled in 2012, 2014 then extended its term by 2014, 2017. The result of successful negotiation, this swap agreement maturity will be in 2020[2]. RMB currency rate is directly influenced for Mongolian daily life because 31.0[3] percentages of Mongolian total import of 2016 was from China.  
Third issue is near future financial burden. It is “Chinggiss” bond with U.S. $ 500.0 million 5 years returning yearly 4.125 percentages ending its term in January 2018 and U.S. $ 1.0 billion 10 years returning annually 5.125 percentages ending its term in December 2022[4].  
We can tell Mongolian economics are gradually growing and above mentioned three international organizations’ projection will be changed after those events. Plus, “Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi” JSC, natural resources have 70.0 million ton coal deposit and it is strategically significant mineral deposit of Mongolia, had been paid about U.S. $ 70.0 million remaining of U.S. $350.0 million loan agreement of “Coal purchase and sale” entered with China’s state – owned aluminum corporation Chalco LLC. By July 31 of 2017, “Erdenet Tavan Tolgoi” JSC had totally exported 5.9 million ton coals which measures 50 percentages of one of the two Mongolian border port named “Gashuun Sukhait” port. At the last year, “Erdenet Tavan Tolgoi” JSC had managed its debt and being sold its produced raw coal by U.S. $ 72.5 on around first season of 2017 what price is tripled its sale compared with U.S. $ 27.0 on September 2016[5].  As presented on the “Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi” JSC, it has been gained MNT 255.7 billion net profit and MNT 149.2 billion, which is about 6 percentages of total taxes income[6], paid for General Department of Taxation in first half year of 2017.  
Fortunately, Mongolia is rich of minerals. Its symbol is “Oyu Tolgoi” LLC which is owned by 34 percentages of Mongolian government and others are hold by “Turquoise Hill Resources” of Canadian company. Its last year revenue is almost equals Mongolian total revenue /table 4/.
And, Mongolian government made a negotiation with International Monetary Fund /IMF/ for participating in “Extended Fund Facility” program. For the funding under the program, total funding amount is U.S. $ 5.5 billion and consists of U.S. $ 434.3 million from IMF, RMB 2.0 billion from “Swapping agreement from MNT to RMB” and remaining funding from Asian development bank, World bank, and other donor countries /table 5/. As reported from Mongolia’s central bank, IMF is planning to fund U.S. $ 1.6 billion in 2017 and up its amount to U.S. $ 4.0 billion in 2020. As negotiated the contract of IMF with Mongolian government, IMF some analysts come in Mongolia and check the funding implementation. Mongolian government approved to add seven type taxes /table6[7]/, increase pension age from 2018 by six months, and distribute child money to 60.0 percentages of only due to participating IMF “Extended Fund Facility” program.
The initial review of IMF funding implementation was resulted on August 2 of 2017 and IMF analysts concluded that Mongolia passed its funding inspection. On September of 2017, the analysts will present their audit result into its board then seasonal funding is provided to market[8].
Listing why we are supposing that Mongolian economy is grown. I could not see bad economics situation, however, everything is depending on Mongolian government and Development bank of Mongolia expenditure.
First bright news is IMF “Extended Funding Facility” program[9]. The scope of IMF program, Mongolian tax revenue had been over went by MNT 658.6 billion at the first half year of 2017[10]. Also, world metal markets prices is growing /table 7/ and 86 percentages of Mongolian export revenue was consisted of metal exports /graph1/. And, Mongolian government is paying attention on Mongolian key grown – driving projects /table 8/.
While Mongolian bank lending has decreased by 5 times compared between 2013 and 2017, Mongolian government internal and external debt’s ratio of 2013 and 2020 will be 2:1 and 8:1. The highest point of gross debt will be in 2018[11]. In conclusion, Mongolian economy is not in crisis, however, its real economy crisis depends on corruption.


Appendixes
Table 1a. Mongolian GDP growth 2017 projection
International Monetary Fund /IMF/
Asian development bank
World Bank
Ministry of Finance Mongolia
-0.2%
0.5%
2.7%
3.0 %
Resource: websites of Ministry of Finance Mongolia, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian development bank

Table 1a. IMF projection of Mongolian GDP growth
2017
2018
2019
-0.2%
1.8%
8.1%
Resource: http://eagle.mn/r/24821

Table 2 Mongolian FDI inflows and net sales
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FDI inflows
4571
4272
2060
337
94
-4072
Net sales
88
82
-58
-80
15
-
Resource: UNCTAD, World investment report 2017
Table 3 Mongolian preliminary budget implementation of 2016
2016 /million/
Projection by MNT
Implementation by MNT
Implementation by USD
Balanced revenue and donors
5,347,244.70
5,852,075.90
                                             2,727.57
Total expenditure and net loan
9,693,415.90
9,519,906.10
                                             4,437.10
Resource: https://mof.gov.mn/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Medee-12.pdf

Table 4. Funding some details of “Extended Fund Facility” program of IMF
Donors
IMF program USD million
Funding in 2017
China
2,000.0
Swapping MNT to USD agreement
Japan
850.0
300.0
Korea
500.0

IMF
434.0

World Bank
600.0
79.0
Asian Development Bank
1,350.0
250.0
Recource: http://www.montsame.mn/read/56302

Table 5 Oyu Tolgoi LLC’s financial indicators and Mongolian total revenue
2016
2017
Copper in concentrates
201,300.0 tonnes (actual) 175,000.0 - 195,000.0 tonnes
130,000.0 - 160,000.0 tonnes
Gold in concentrates
300,000.0 ounces (actual) 255,000.0 - 285,000.0 ounces
100,000.0 - 140,000.0 tonnes
Operating cash costs
$ 840.0 million
$ 720.0 million
Capital expenditures
$ 200.0 million (open pit)
$ 100.0 million (open pit) $ 825.0 million - $ 925.0 million (underground)
Total revenue
$ 1,203.3 million
Mongolian balanced revenus of 2016 was $ 2,727.57 million
Resource: http://www.turquoisehill.com/i/pdf/ppt/Investor_presentation_Feb_2017.pdf

Table 6. Increasing seven tax rates
Taxes
Remarks
1
To increase excise tax rate on diesel

2
To increase personal income tax rate by step
10, 15, 20
3
To increase social insurance premium
Adding 1 rate from 2018
4
To increase excise tax rate on automobile
Adding 3-15 percentages depending on automobile’s age and 20-250 percentages into automobile with 4500 engine capacity depending on its age
5
To increase excise tax rate on tobacco and alcohol   
Adding 10 percentages in 2018 and 5 percentages in 2019, 2020 respectively
6
To tax from saving interest from 2018
To be performed in April, 2017
7
To increase excise tax rate on imported tobacco up to 30 percentages
Now, its tax rate is 5 percentages.
To improve general department of taxation management and review the tax collection realistic
Resource: http://eagle.mn/r/24821

 Table 7 Copper metal’s LME average price and dollar’s average rate /copper is 40.9 percentages of exported metals/
Thousand ton
345,400.0*
a
c=a*bi
d=c*2250
Diff market price
d=c*2433.2
USD diff
Total diff
Balanced USD
$4,599.0
b1
$1,588.5
$3,574,112.9
$3,865,125.1
$291,012.2
$291,012.2
Projection USD
$4,800.0
b2
$1,657.9
$3,730,320.0
$156,207.2
$4,034,050.9
$303,730.9
$459,938.1
average of I-VIII months
$5,781.0
b3
$1,996.8
$4,492,704.2
$918,591.3
$4,858,510.1
$365,806.0
$1,284,397.3
Note: *Mongolian united budget introduction 2017 projection of copper export and U.S. $ 1 equals to MNT 2250.0.


Graph 1. Mongolian gross export 2016 
Recources: IMF website














Table 8 Key Growth – Driving Projects
Project
Highlights
Expected investment
Expected Completion Date
Oyu Tolgoi phase II
US $ 825.0 - 925.0 million investment in underground, US $ 100.0 million investment in open pit mining within 2017
US $ 6.4 billion
2020
Oyutolgoi railway
Commenced in May 2013 and 75% completed as of May 2014; US $ 200.0 million invested in the project
US $ 1.3 billion
2019 - 2020
Tavan Tolgoi mining
Shenhua - MMC - consortium continues negotiation with Government
US $ 1.0 billion
2020
Tavan Tolgoi power plant
Marubeni / MCS Power signed investment contract in June 2016
US $ 1.0 billion
2020
Gatsuurt gold mining
Government expected to grant permission by April / May 2017
US $ 0.6 billion
2017
Grand total
US $ 10.3 billion
2017 - 2020
Source: Government of Mongolia, Ministry of Finance of Mongolia, National Statistics Office of Mongolia




[1] Bloomberg TV Mongolia website
[2] Mongolia’s central bank website https://www.mongolbank.mn/news.aspx?id=1425
[3] Mongolian Customs website
[4] Development Bank of Mongolia introduction presentation of “Chinggis” bond and its implementation
[5] http://www.erdenestt.mn/?p=1954
[6] https://mof.gov.mn/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Medee-12.pdf, and own calculation
[7] http://eagle.mn/r/24821
[8] http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/08/02/pr17313-mongolia-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-on-first-review-of-extended-fund-facility
[9] http://www.montsame.mn/read/56302
[10] http://www.mta.mn/c/view/60386